In Afghanistan, It’s Deja Vu All Over Again

Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and now a 17-year losing war in Afghanistan….One wonders: is the US ever again going to elect a leadership that fights its wars to victory or abstains from engaging in them in the first place? In important respects the Afghanistan fiasco is a carbon copy of earlier failures in Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq. In each case, the US military tried to win a war while failing to neutralize the enemy’s outside support base. In Korea — it was China. In South Vietnam — North Vietnam. In Iraq — Syria, the Gulf States, and Iran. In Afghanistan — it is Pakistan.

Pakistan’s support for the Taliban and Al Qaeda has been known to every administration starting with that of George W. Bush, even as early as 9/11, but President Trump seems finally to have had enough. “The Pentagon has canceled another $300 million in aid to Pakistan, bringing to $800 million the total cut in U.S. payments to the country this year, ” ABC News reports today. US Secretary of State Pompeo has also indicated US opposition to any IMF bailout that just serves to repay China’s loans to Pakistan.

The Bush administration’s failure to act on its knowledge is especially appalling, because strong action against Pakistan then wouldn’t have faced the difficulties it now would. China, Russia, and Iran are presently reinforcing Pakistan in opposing US and NATO efforts to destroy ISIS, Al Qaeda, and the Taliban.

Walk away?

It’s tempting for the US to just cut its losses and walk away from the mess. This might have the advantage of creating a situation in which the four countries presently allied against the US would begin squabbling with each other over the spoils of a US-free Afghanistan. This is, in essence, the proposal of Major Jim Kane (U.S. Army Ret.) in his article “Why America Should Let Its Rivals Play the Great Game in Afghanistan.” The obvious drawback of the major’s proposal is that Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan would remain safe havens for terrorists to prepare new attacks on the US just as Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda did earlier.

One thing that’s clear is that President Trump’s unqualified trust in the advice of his military leaders has not been serving him well. The US service academies and advanced training schools have been producing excellent officers at the tactical and operations level but have failed badly at producing and promoting good strategists.  Col. Robert M. Cassidy — US Army retired, PhD, and Wesleyan fellow — has written compellingly on this problem in his article “Afghanistan and Strategy: A Perspective 16 Years On.” His article “Afghanistan Strategy: Few Tough Questions, Fewer Detailed Answers” is also worth reading. It’s time to put an end to the parade of commanders claiming that the US and Afghan government are making progress against the Taliban when they clearly aren’t.

Development or become a dead-end Chinese puppet?

Pakistan’s dominant army officer corps and intelligence bureau (ISI) is wedded to proxy terrorism in Afghanistan and Kashmir out of a sense of hopeless weakness vis-a-vis economically and demographically rising India. This is a dead-end strategy that offers no hope for Pakistan as a viable, prosperous, modern nation. The countries around it are developing — at least those that, unlike Sri Lanka, don’t get trapped in debt to the Chinese. Pakistan should be given the either/or choice of development in collaboration with the advanced sector West or becoming a North Korean style puppet state of China. The first option would require it to abandon support of terrorism or face severe economic boycott and pariah status. But it would provide Pakistan a path to becoming a modern, prosperous nation, enjoying trade and peaceful relations with its powerful neighbor India. The second option is a path to permanent backwardness and eventually being overwhelmed by a US-allied India.

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