by Richard Schulman
Iran has just committed an act of war against Saudi Arabia and the energy lifeline that keeps the world economy running. The airborne assault was launched either by Iranian forces directly or by proxies it controls who would not have taken such an action without approval at the highest levels of the Iranian government. The attack is a direct challenge to the US for leading the economic boycott against Iran. It requires a US military response unless the US wishes to capitulate to Iranian demands or, doing nothing, face further Iranian escalation.
Why? Because the Iranians have come to the provisional conclusion that the Trump administration is a toothless, claw-less tiger — from a military, as opposed to economic, standpoint. President Trump likely encouraged this belief by
- Firing his anti-Iranian hawk, John Bolton;
- Not responding militarily to the Iranian downing of a US military drone in international waters, nor to Iranian attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf;
- Acceding to President Macron’s uninvited French offer of mediation between the US and mullahs — intended to weaken the Iranian boycott; and
- Pursuing an inept celebrity-style diplomacy with North Korea, the Taliban, and the Chinese, while simultaneously launching trade wars against the allies who would have joined him in opposing the Chinese.
Admittedly, the Democratic Party and former President Obama left President Trump’s administration with a very difficult situation on two counts:
- By repeatedly, from the Reagan administration onward, blocking US attempts to develop an integrated, space-based anti-ballistic missile system to defend the US and its allies from airborne assaults. It’s astonishing that such defenses were either not present at the Saudi refinery complex or inoperative or ineffective;
- By President Obama’s foolishly dropping the highly effective economic sanctions against Iran and instead throwing it an economic lifeline in the form of the unconstitutional JCPOA, a treaty that was never submitted to the Senate. This forced the Trump administration to repudiate the JCPOA, leading to frictions with Europe that would have been entirely avoided had the economic boycott been maintained — rather than ended by President Obama on very unfavorable terms to the US.
Even today, President Obama’s legacy lives on in the Democrats’ friendliness to Iranian causes — at the expense of US and international energy security and Israel. The Iranians are counting on President Trump’s fear of 2020 election repercussions if he acts decisively against Iran now in the face of Democratic opposition. But if the president fails to do so, the Iranian provocations, directly or through its proxies, will continue and escalate. Iran is desperate to get the economic boycott against it lifted, but this should only be negotiable if Iran agrees to withdraw its support for its terrorist proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen and ceases its missile and nuclear weapons programs.
US military retaliation against Iran should focus on high-value Iranian military targets, preferably those that would limit targeting of shipping, bases, and infrastructure in the region. Iran should be warned that further attacks will lead to the destruction of its oil refineries, ports, and pipelines. Economic targets owned by the Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian military should also be put at risk.
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